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UK inflation is now the worst in the developed world. While consumer prices are steadily falling in the US and Europe, over here it’s out of control and the BoE is largely to blame.
This spells disaster for homeowners, who will see their mortgage rates rocket when existing fixed-rates expire.
Many risk losing their homes and this time we can't blame former Prime Minister ‘Calamity’ Liz Truss.
Yesterday, in a rare moment of humility and insight, Bailey admitted that the BoE was “wrong” about inflation, but he only mentioned one minor example.
He told the House of Lords that “right up to the last day there were a million or so jobs on the furlough scheme" and he expected unemployment to soar when it ended in September 2021, but that didn't happen.
Well it's one theory, I suppose.
Bailey also said he was poised to launch a review into why the UK’s central bank has been so wrong-footed by inflation.
He said there are “big lessons” to be learned. You’re telling me.
I’ll spare him the expense and bother by running through five more things the BoE got wrong, (but probably won’t even consider in its review).
BoE kept interest rates too low for too long. When the BoE slashed base to 0.5 percent in March 2009 after financial crisis, it said this was only a temporary measure that would last for months.
Instead, it kept them almost at zero for a dozen years, destroying savers while inflating a housing market bubble that is now beginning to burst.
When the pandemic struck, it doubled down on its easy money policies, and now we're all paying the price.
The Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) should have started hiking much earlier. Yes, it would have hurt, but not as much as it does now.
It’s a closed circle of experts who all think the same. The BoE relies on a small group of analysts who have all succumbed to the same group think on the economy, and unconsciously exclude experts who might have the temerity to disagree.
So-called "monetarist" economists are shunned at the BoE, yet they're the ones who saw the inflationary storm coming as the money supply rocketed.
Like most of the establishment, BoE experts swallowed the post-Brexit mantra that the UK is a nation in inexorable decline, and repeatedly predicted a recession that never came.
How wrong it was as EU powerhouse Germany falls into recession while to the BoE's surprise the UK has escaped (no thanks to Bailey).
The BoE couldn’t forecast yesterday’s weather. The Bank has been called the Michael Fish of forecasters for failing to predict the 2008 financial crisis.
In 2021, Bailey made his own fishy prediction, by declaring that inflation was going to be “transitory”. Twelve successive monthly base rates hikes later and core inflation is still climbing rather than falling.
READ MORE: Mortgage panic is overdone – beware locking into a long-term fixed rate today
Its forecasts have been wrong again and again.
In November it predicted unemployment would peak at 6.5 percent, only to revise that down to 4.5 percent. In February it said inflation would fall to 3.9 percent by year end, now it's guessing 5.1 percent.
It’s pushing the wrong button. The Bank of England only has one weapon in its armoury to defeat inflation, and that's hiking interest rates.
That won't do anything to resolve the two main factors driving inflation, the rising cost of energy and imported food.
It simply means more pain, especially for homeowners, for little gain.
BoE doesn’t accept responsibility. Bailey's admission that the BoE may have got it "wrong" was a long time coming.
For too long, it has blamed everybody else apart from itself for policy failures. Its economist Huw Pill even tried to blame you and me, by making the “tone deaf” comment that workers must "accept that they’re worse off" and stop pushing for pay rises, to prevent the economy overheating.
It's hardly surprising that people have been seeking higher salaries, as prices go through the roof.
So there are my starting suggestions for the BoE review. There's plenty more to look at, too.
No doubt the whole process will be a whitewash, if it ever actually happens, and the BoE will learn nothing.
It never does.