Here are five takeaways from the Tuesday decision — and what to know about the chaotic weeks ahead.

A Democratic gerrymander in New York could offset the GOP one in North Carolina

An aggressive gerrymander in New York could have a significant impact in the fight for the House.

We already know what such a Democratic gerrymander could look like — just look at the one they drew last time.

Democratic lawmakers drew a map last year that could have netted them as many as 22 of the state’s 26 seats. Instead, the court-drawn map had several competitive districts and resulted in a delegation of 15 Democrats and 11 Republicans.

Democrats this time could draw lines to edge out some Republican incumbents to try to guarantee some pickups — the all-GOP delegation on Long Island is probably sleeping less soundly tonight, as is Staten Island’s Nicole Malliotakis; the Hudson Valley’s Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro; and central New York’s Brandon Williams.

Even a few surefire wins could help erase the hole Democrats nationally are facing after Republicans drew a potent gerrymander in North Carolina that will all but guarantee the GOP picks up three or four seats there.

Of course, the lines aren’t everything. Even with the court-drawn districts, President Joe Biden carried 20 of the state’s 26 districts by at least 4.5 points. But Democrats lost five of those 20 Biden districts.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty in New York

Theoretically, New York Democrats might not draw the map. Redistricting is being sent back to the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, which voters approved in 2014. The commission — which is split evenly between appointees loyal to the two parties — could usher through a new map by a Feb. 28 deadline.

Here’s how it’s supposed to work: The commission draws a map and sends it to the Legislature for an up-or-down vote. If the Legislature rejects that first map, the commission gets another crack at it. If the Legislature rejects it a second time, then — and only then — does the Legislature get to draw the lines.

That is not what happened last year.

When the commission met to draw New York’s lines for the next 10 years, the GOP and Democratic appointees failed to agree upon a map. Legislative Democrats passed their own gerrymandered maps instead. The state’s Court of Appeals threw out the map, declaring the process unconstitutional, with a court-drawn map being used in the midterms.

So there’s an outcome here where that bipartisan redistricting commission draws consensus lines and the Democratic-controlled Legislature gives it the OK.

But there are still significant questions. Will the commission fail again? Will it find an agreement, but the Democratic-dominated Legislature rejects it anyway? How aggressive would Democratic lawmakers be in gerrymandering the lines, should they take over the process again?

Republicans aren’t the only ones who gerrymander

Gerrymandering has long been a bipartisan affair. New York could prove that again.

Some of the country’s most audacious partisan gerrymanders come courtesy of GOP-dominated delegations in Texas, North Carolina and Florida. But Democrats have taken their shots, too — such as in Illinois — and now New York Democrats could get the chance to do so again.

To be clear: Both parties don’t gerrymander equally.

Democrats on the federal level have repeatedly sought to outlaw partisan gerrymandering as part of their sweeping proposals to overhaul the American electoral system. And Democrats broadly have more readily embraced independent redistricting commissions, although there are exceptions.

But some Democrats have long argued that when they have the opportunity to draw maps, they shouldn’t have to fight with one fist. And national Democrats were the ones driving the lawsuit that led to Tuesday’s decision.

State judges matter a lot

So how did a state court that said the redistricting commission had unconstitutionally failed decide to give the process another go?

Simply, the judges changed.

All seven of the judges on the New York Court of Appeals, the highest court in the state, are Democratic appointees — both for the 2022 decision that led to the court-drawn lines and for Tuesday’s ruling reopening the process. Both decisions were decided 4-3.

But one seat changed. While six judges effectively ruled the same way both times, a seventh judge — in this case, a temporary replacement — was the deciding vote. She sided with the three dissenters in the 2022 case to make a new majority this year.

It’s just the latest place we’ve seen a change in a state court’s composition have dramatic effects in the battle for the House. Take North Carolina: After the GOP took control of the state court in the 2022 elections, the new conservative majority tossed out a ruling from the previous iteration of the court that had said partisan gerrymandering was illegal. With the new court saying it won’t police gerrymandering, North Carolina Republicans drew their new map, heavily skewing the lines.

Another example: In Wisconsin, Democrats won an expensive state Supreme Court race earlier this year to flip ideological control of the court. The new justice — Janet Protasewicz — called the state’s political boundaries “rigged” during the campaign. Shortly after she won, Democratic-aligned groups brought a case challenging the state’s ruthless legislative gerrymanders. A fight over the congressional lines seems only a matter of time.

Mid-decade redistricting is a thing now

Redistricting used to primarily take place once every 10 years following the census, as required by the Constitution. It was rare, but not unheard of, for states to draw new lines after that.

Now, mid-decade redistricting has become routine.

There’s been just one election since the 2020 census, and we’ve already seen purely partisan overhauls of the lines in North Carolina — with New York possibly up next.

And there are significant challenges to racial gerrymandering across the country — which could also institute new lines and have a significant impact in the battle for the House.

Alabama will have a court-drawn map in 2024 after the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed a lower court’s ruling that the lines likely violated the Voting Rights Act for weakening the voting power of Black residents. The new map adds a second district where Black Alabamans — who are overwhelmingly Democrats — will almost certainly be able to elect a member of their choosing.

There are also ongoing challenges in Georgia and Louisiana. Look to states like Texas for similar challenges later in the decade.

Elsewhere, there are state-level efforts to police partisan gerrymandering, as in Ohio or Nevada, that could ultimately lead to new lines before the 2031 remap.

Read More