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Experts have warned mortgage holders that the Bank of England will likely "play it safe" today by holding interest rates.
Economics expert, Professor Andrew Angus at Cranfield School of Management said: “Despite the widely expected news later this week that the UK has emerged from last year’s shallow recession, there is still a job to be done to secure economic growth in the short-term.
"That’s why the Bank of England will continue to play it safe today, holding interest rates for the ninth consecutive month.
“The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will need to be convinced inflation is well and truly under control before we see a cut and I can’t see that happening until the summer.
"Using interest rates to manage inflation may be a blunt tool – but it’s the only one the Bank has at its disposal.”
Althea Spinozzi, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Saxo, said: "Financial markets are bracing for UK inflation to reach 2 percent in the second quarter, following comments from Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey indicating a significant anticipated decline in April's inflation figures.
"Bailey attributed this expected drop to the UK's distinctive approach to household energy pricing. Yet, wages and services inflation remain at 6 percent.
"While the BOE is exploring opportunities to begin reducing interest rates, this week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will likely show that the rate cut cycle ahead remains uncertain. The data Bailey referenced will not be released until May 22nd, making it risky to pledge to an aggressive rate cut cycle ahead.
"Therefore, even if the Bank of England pre-commits to a rate cut this summer, it is unlikely to announce further cuts soon, especially given the uncertain monetary policy trajectories of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. This leaves UK monetary policy decisions heavily reliant on upcoming economic data.
"At the last MPC meeting, the BOE members decided by an 8-1 majority to maintain interest rates unchanged. In this meeting, it wouldn’t be surprising if the vote split adjusts to 7-2.”
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at investment experts, Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Although the Bank of England is set to keep rates on hold yet again later, hopes are high that a summer interest rate cut will be on the agenda.
“Even though the Bank is set to stay in a holding pattern for now, there will be huge interest in the voting split between policymakers and the accompanying quarterly monetary policy report.
“Expectations are centring around an interest rate cut in August but if more than one policymaker votes for a rate cut, it will spark greater hopes that a cut could come earlier in June.”
She added: “Likewise, if the Bank forecasts that inflation may be weaker in the months ahead than it flagged previously and gives a lacklustre forecast for economic growth, markets may price in more interest rate cuts this year, expecting a shift around the table at the next meeting.
“What will be key to watch is the Bank’s expectations for the labour market, as the stubbornness of wage growth has been a worry for policymakers.”
She pointed to a KPMG-REC jobs report issued today highlights that the pool of available labour for businesses has increased sharply, a sign that firms aren’t hiring as quickly.
As a result, she said this should bring down wage growth, which should help tame inflation.
Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment at interactive investor, said: “All eyes are on the Bank of England today – it is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25 percent but with inflation coming down, focus will be on clues from the central bank as to when it might finally begin cutting rates, potentially around August.”
Alastair Douglas, chief executive of TotallyMoney, said: “Every day, more than 4,000 homeowners face a fresh financial shock when their existing cheap mortgage offer comes to an end.
“The options are then; lock in a new deal, paying almost double the interest rate, and potentially incurring product fees of around £1,000 — or move onto the SVR, which can be as high as 9.49 percent, and then hope the Bank of England starts slashing rates soon.
“Whatever the case, both choices will be considerably more expensive, with the average homeowner having to shell out an extra £2,040 each year on the average two-year fix, or £4,764 on the average SVR.
“And with people’s finances worn thin by the cost of living crisis, and inflation far lower than its 11% peak, pressure is now piling on the Bank of England to make their move. We can only hope they’ve fixed their forecasting, so as to stop inflicting even more misery on mortgagors.
“It’s estimated that 128,800 homeowners will fall into arrears by the end of the year, and if you’re struggling to keep up with your mortgage payments, then contact your lender as soon as possible.
“The regulator has told them they must act in your best interest, offering flexibility so you can better manage your borrowing. It won’t impact your credit score, but missing payments might. So don’t delay.”