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The government has refused to explain why its estimates for the cost of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are 40 per cent higher than projections from independent experts.
In June, before ministers announced the 2050 target, a leaked letter from Phillip Hammond warned then-prime minister Theresa May that “the cost of transitioning to a zero-carbon economy is likely to be well in excess of a trillion pounds” a year.
This figure was apparently based an estimate of £70bn a year provided by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).
That number, Mr Hammond acknowledged, was 40 per cent higher than the £50bn annual cost calculated by the independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
However, unlike the CCC, BEIS has not published its analysis or explained how it reached this significantly larger figure.
Created with Sketch.
Created with Sketch.
1/20 California
In this decade, humans have become ever more aware of climate change. Calls for leaders to act echo around the globe as the signs of a changing climate become ever more difficult to ignore
Getty
2/20 Athens, Greece
Fierce wildfires have flared up in numerous countries. The damage being caused is unprecedented: 103 people were killed in wildfires last year in California, one of the places best prepared, best equipped to fight such blazes in the world
AFP/Getty
3/20 Redding, California
Entire towns have been razed. The towns of Redding and Paradise in California were all but eliminated in the 2018 season
AP
4/20 Athens, Greece
While wildfires in Greece (pictured), Australia, Indonesia and many other countries have wrought chaos to infrastructure, economies and cost lives
AFP/Getty
5/20 Carlisle, England
In Britain, flooding has become commonplace. Extreme downpours in Carlisle in the winter of 2015 saw the previous record flood level being eclipsed by two feet
AFP/Getty
6/20 Hebden Bridge, England
Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire has flooded repeatedly in the past decade, with the worst coming on Christmas Day 2015. Toby Smith of Climate Visuals, an organisation focused on improving how climate change is depicted in the media, says: "Extreme weather and flooding, has and will become more frequent due to climate change. An increase in the severity and distribution of press images, reports and media coverage across the nation has localised the issue. It has raised our emotions, perception and personalised the effects and hazards of climate change."
Getty
7/20 Somerset, England
Out west in Somerset, floods in 2013 led to entire villages being cut off and isolated for weeks
Getty
8/20 Dumfries, Scotland
"In summer 2012, intense rain flooded over 8000 properties. In 2013, storms and coastal surges combined catastrophically with elevated sea levels whilst December 2015, was the wettest month ever recorded. Major flooding events continued through the decade with the UK government declaring flooding as one of the nation's major threats in 2017," says Mr Smith of Climate Visuals
Getty
9/20 London, England
Weather has been more extreme in Britain in recent years. The 'Beast from the East' which arrived in February 2018 brought extraordinarily cold temperatures and high snowfall. Central London (pictured), where the city bustle tends to mean that snow doesn't even settle, was covered in inches of snow for day
PA
10/20 London, England
Months after the cold snap, a heatwave struck Britain, rendering the normally plush green of England's parks in Summer a parched brown for weeks
AFP/Getty
11/20 New South Wales, Australia
Worsening droughts in many countries have been disastrous for crop yields and have threatened livestock. In Australia, where a brutal drought persisted for months last year, farmers have suffered from mental health problems because of the threat to their livelihood
Reuters
12/20 Tonle Sap, Cambodia
Even dedicated climate skeptic Jeremy Clarkson has come to recognise the threat of climate change after visiting the Tonle Sap lake system in Cambodia. Over a million people rely on the water of Tonle Sap for work and sustinence but, as Mr Clarkson witnessed, a drought has severley depleted the water level
Carlo Frem/Amazon
13/20 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
In reaction to these harbingers of climate obliteration, some humans have taken measures to counter the impending disaster. Ethiopia recently planted a reported 350 million trees in a single day
AFP/Getty
14/20 Morocco
Morocco has undertaken the most ambitious solar power scheme in the world, recently completing a solar plant the size of San Francisco
AFP/Getty
15/20 London, England
Electric cars are taking off as a viable alternative to fossil fuel burning vehicles and major cities across the world are adding charging points to accomodate
AFP/Getty
16/20 Purmerend, The Netherlands
Cities around the world are embracing cycling too, as a clean (and healthy) mode of transport. The Netherlands continues to lead the way with bikes far outnumbering people
Jeroen Much/Andras Schuh
17/20 Xiamen, China
Cycling infrastructure is taking over cities the world over, in the hope of reducing society's dependency on polluting vehicles
Ma Weiwei
18/20 Chennai, India
Despite positive steps being taken, humans continue to have a wildly adverse effect on the climate. There have been numerous major oil spills this decade, the most notable being the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010
AFP/Getty
19/20 Amazon rainforest, Brazil
More recently, large swathes of the Amazon rainforest were set alight by people to clear land for agriculture
AFP/Getty
20/20 California
This decade may have seen horrors but it has led to an understanding that the next decade must see change if human life is to continue
Getty
1/20 California
In this decade, humans have become ever more aware of climate change. Calls for leaders to act echo around the globe as the signs of a changing climate become ever more difficult to ignore
Getty
2/20 Athens, Greece
Fierce wildfires have flared up in numerous countries. The damage being caused is unprecedented: 103 people were killed in wildfires last year in California, one of the places best prepared, best equipped to fight such blazes in the world
AFP/Getty
3/20 Redding, California
Entire towns have been razed. The towns of Redding and Paradise in California were all but eliminated in the 2018 season
AP
4/20 Athens, Greece
While wildfires in Greece (pictured), Australia, Indonesia and many other countries have wrought chaos to infrastructure, economies and cost lives
AFP/Getty
5/20 Carlisle, England
In Britain, flooding has become commonplace. Extreme downpours in Carlisle in the winter of 2015 saw the previous record flood level being eclipsed by two feet
AFP/Getty
6/20 Hebden Bridge, England
Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire has flooded repeatedly in the past decade, with the worst coming on Christmas Day 2015. Toby Smith of Climate Visuals, an organisation focused on improving how climate change is depicted in the media, says: "Extreme weather and flooding, has and will become more frequent due to climate change. An increase in the severity and distribution of press images, reports and media coverage across the nation has localised the issue. It has raised our emotions, perception and personalised the effects and hazards of climate change."
Getty
7/20 Somerset, England
Out west in Somerset, floods in 2013 led to entire villages being cut off and isolated for weeks
Getty
8/20 Dumfries, Scotland
"In summer 2012, intense rain flooded over 8000 properties. In 2013, storms and coastal surges combined catastrophically with elevated sea levels whilst December 2015, was the wettest month ever recorded. Major flooding events continued through the decade with the UK government declaring flooding as one of the nation's major threats in 2017," says Mr Smith of Climate Visuals
Getty
9/20 London, England
Weather has been more extreme in Britain in recent years. The 'Beast from the East' which arrived in February 2018 brought extraordinarily cold temperatures and high snowfall. Central London (pictured), where the city bustle tends to mean that snow doesn't even settle, was covered in inches of snow for day
PA
10/20 London, England
Months after the cold snap, a heatwave struck Britain, rendering the normally plush green of England's parks in Summer a parched brown for weeks
AFP/Getty
11/20 New South Wales, Australia
Worsening droughts in many countries have been disastrous for crop yields and have threatened livestock. In Australia, where a brutal drought persisted for months last year, farmers have suffered from mental health problems because of the threat to their livelihood
Reuters
12/20 Tonle Sap, Cambodia
Even dedicated climate skeptic Jeremy Clarkson has come to recognise the threat of climate change after visiting the Tonle Sap lake system in Cambodia. Over a million people rely on the water of Tonle Sap for work and sustinence but, as Mr Clarkson witnessed, a drought has severley depleted the water level
Carlo Frem/Amazon
13/20 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
In reaction to these harbingers of climate obliteration, some humans have taken measures to counter the impending disaster. Ethiopia recently planted a reported 350 million trees in a single day
AFP/Getty
14/20 Morocco
Morocco has undertaken the most ambitious solar power scheme in the world, recently completing a solar plant the size of San Francisco
AFP/Getty
15/20 London, England
Electric cars are taking off as a viable alternative to fossil fuel burning vehicles and major cities across the world are adding charging points to accomodate
AFP/Getty
16/20 Purmerend, The Netherlands
Cities around the world are embracing cycling too, as a clean (and healthy) mode of transport. The Netherlands continues to lead the way with bikes far outnumbering people
Jeroen Much/Andras Schuh
17/20 Xiamen, China
Cycling infrastructure is taking over cities the world over, in the hope of reducing society's dependency on polluting vehicles
Ma Weiwei
18/20 Chennai, India
Despite positive steps being taken, humans continue to have a wildly adverse effect on the climate. There have been numerous major oil spills this decade, the most notable being the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010
AFP/Getty
19/20 Amazon rainforest, Brazil
More recently, large swathes of the Amazon rainforest were set alight by people to clear land for agriculture
AFP/Getty
20/20 California
This decade may have seen horrors but it has led to an understanding that the next decade must see change if human life is to continue
Getty
A freedom of information request by the New Scientist magazine to BEIS was rejected, and this week an appeal, overseen by the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), upheld BEIS’s right not to explain its £70bn estimate.
According to the New Scientist, BEIS told the ICO that releasing the evidence could harm public understanding of the issue due to a “lack of context”.
“There is real potential to distract the public debate away from the substantive environmental issue of climate change with cost estimates that are not properly contextualised,” BEIS reportedly said.
The refusal to provide evidence for this large jump in the economic impact of the legally binding net-zero 2050 goal leaves the public, businesses and institutions in the dark over the policy, and gives them less time to prepare and adapt.
In his letter, Mr Hammond states his support for the project, but suggests the large cost of the policy could divert funds from other areas.
He wrote: “The challenge of transitioning to a zero-carbon economy is wholly unprecedented in both its scale and complexity. It will have profound and far-reaching implications for every sector of the economy, disrupting existing business models and transforming the foundations of our modern economy.”
However, since the leaked letter, it appears BEIS now may revise the figure.
A spokesperson for BEIS told The Independent: “Setting a net-zero target is the right thing to do and we agree with the rigorous and detailed analysis conducted by our independent advisers, the Committee on Climate Change.
“There are a number of other figures out there which do not factor in benefits or consider the costs of not doing this.
“In fact, the costs of meeting this target are coming down. Since 2008, the projected cost has reduced dramatically because of advances in clean energy and green technology. We anticipate that these costs will continue to fall.”
Last year, the Treasury announced it would publish an official net-zero cost review in November 2020.
The review “will assess how the UK can maximise economic growth opportunities from its transformation to a green economy”, and will come ahead of the UK hosting the UN climate change conference later the same month.