Also on the ballot on Tuesday are at least a dozen more races that will illustrate the directions of both parties in the post-Trump era — or shape the general-election landscape with control of Congress and key state governments firmly up for grabs.

Polls close in Kentucky at 6 p.m./7 p.m. Eastern Time, North Carolina at 7:30 p.m., Pennsylvania at 8 p.m., Idaho at 10 p.m./11 p.m. and Oregon at 11 p.m. (Kentucky and Idaho are split across multiple time zones.)

Here are the seven things we’re watching:

The Pennsylvania drama

The final week before the Pennsylvania primary has featured numerous twists and turns — and increasing heartburn among GOP insiders, worried the party is poised to nominate less-electable candidates for two statewide, tossup races.

Trump’s endorsement of Mehmet Oz had the celebrity surgeon surging in the polls over the final weeks. But the eleventh-hour rise of former congressional candidate Kathy Barnette has scrambled the calculus in what’s now a three-way race with Oz and wealthy hedge fund CEO David McCormick, whose fortunes have lagged since Trump spurned him.

For a candidate in a primary, Oz is remarkably polarizing: Polls show roughly equal percentages of likely primary voters view him favorably and unfavorably. But he isn’t among the candidates most Republicans are worried will cost them in November.

That’s Barnette and gubernatorial hopeful Doug Mastriano, who have been running as a loosely joined ticket for months. While Barnette’s surge in the polls has been more recent, Mastriano has been the nominal frontrunner for months — a position that was only strengthened when Trump endorsed him just three days before the primary.

Both Barnette and Mastriano were in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, backing Trump’s efforts to block the acceptance of the election results. Mastriano was a key Trump ally following the Nov. 2020 election, maneuvering unsuccessfully to allow the state legislature to award the state’s 20 electoral votes to Trump despite the will of the voters.

Many Republicans in Washington see both — Mastriano especially — as borderline unelectable, even in a great environment for the GOP.

Trump’s endorsement tests

Trump’s backing of Oz and Mastriano aren’t the only tests of the former president’s sway with GOP primary voters on Tuesday.

The most political former president in U.S. history is also seeking to influence competitive primaries in Idaho and North Carolina, in addition to some of Pennsylvania’s congressional races.

Trump is facing another likely loss in a small-red-state governor’s race, after his candidate went down last week in Nebraska. In Idaho, Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin over incumbent Gov. Brad Little, who is favored to defeat the challenger.

Another risky Trump endorsement: 26-year-old North Carolina congressional candidate Bo Hines, who is running for a newly drawn swing seat south of Raleigh. Hines is in a crowded, eight-way race — the winner must receive greater than 30 percent of the vote, or the top two finishers advance to a late-July runoff.

Trump’s pick at the top of the ticket in North Carolina is looking much more secure. After lagging behind former Gov. Pat McCrory for months in the GOP Senate primary, Rep. Ted Budd has pulled well ahead in the polls and appears poised to clinch the nomination to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr.

Setting aside Trump’s endorsements of secure incumbents who aren’t facing credible primary challengers — clearly designed to pad the former president’s win-loss record — one other notable contest is the GOP primary to face Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in Northeast Pennsylvania. Trump has endorsed Jim Bognet, a former official in his administration who lost to Cartwright in 2020. Bognet is facing Mike Marsicano, who finished fourth in the primary two years ago but has slightly outspent Bognet this time around.

Checking in on the Republican civil war

Trump is on the record in roughly two dozen races on Tuesday — but not in Cawthorn’s primary, despite expressing support for giving the embattled House freshman a “second chance” in a social media post on Monday.

The list of Cawthorn’s alleged offenses is lengthy, ranging from the sensational (accusing some of his colleagues of participating in drug use and group sex) to the mundane but politically damaging (an apparent ethics probe and rampant district shopping in an effort to get closer to the spotlight of the Charlotte media market).

But Cawthorn’s saving grace could be the large field of candidates — seven in total — challenging him, along with North Carolina’s relatively low 30-percent winning threshold compared to other southern states with runoff laws.

Cawthorn’s district is rated “Likely Republican,” so the eventual GOP nominee will be the favorite in the fall.

Cawthorn isn’t the only GOP incumbent fighting for renomination on Tuesday. In Idaho, 12-term Rep. Mike Simpson is facing a rematch against attorney Bryan Smith, who is challenging Simpson from the right again after a decisive loss in 2014.

Back then, the conservative Club for Growth endorsed Smith and spent more than $500,000 on his behalf. This time, neither Trump nor the former president’s frenemies at the Club are backing Smith.

No matter who wins, Idaho’s 2nd District is rated “Solid Republican.”

Lastly, keep an eye on Bucks County, Pa., where moderate GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is seeking a fourth term. Fitzpatrick’s primary challenger, Alex Entin, has little funding. But the centrist incumbent received only 63 percent of the vote in the 2020 primary, and Tuesday’s race is yet another test of his appeal among the base.

Fitzpatrick’s 1st District is rated “Lean Republican,” though Democrats would have a better shot to flip it without the incumbent on the ballot.

Democrats’ battle for the soul

Democrats face their own self-revealing primaries on Tuesday. In Pennsylvania, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is likely to capture the nomination for Senate, despite leaving the trail in the final days as he recovers from a stroke. Fetterman is more liberal than his best-funded opponent, Rep. Conor Lamb, and Lamb never seriously threatened Fetterman’s early lead in the polls.

But when Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) traveled to Pittsburgh this past weekend, it wasn’t to campaign for Fetterman or fellow progressive Senate candidate Malcolm Kenyatta. It was to stump for state Rep. Summer Lee, a candidate for the open, solidly blue 12th District congressional seat. Lee is facing a more moderate opponent, attorney Steve Irwin, who’s been backed by $2 million in spending by United Democracy Project, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s new political arm.

Two Democratic primaries for Congress in North Carolina pit the party’s liberal wing against its African American establishment in Raleigh. In the swing 1st District, retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield’s handpicked replacement, state Sen. Don Davis, face progressive former state Sen. Erica Smith. And in the bluer 4th District, state Sen. Valerie Foushee is trying to fend off the Sanders-endorsed Nida Allam. United Democracy Project is backing both Davis and Foushee in these races, too.

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