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The triple lock mechanism ensures the state pension sum increases each year by the highest of: 2.5 percent, inflation or average earnings. It was temporarily suspended this year in favour of a double lock due to warped earnings data as a result of the COVID-19 crisis.
However, the return of the policy next financial year has delighted pensioners, many of whom are banking on a bumper boost given double digit inflation.
While Conservative politicians have pledged their commitment to the policy for the rest of Parliament, an expert has warned the future of the triple lock may be at risk.
Tom Selby, head of retirement policy at AJ Bell, said: “The triple-lock seems to be under perennial threat, in part because the wild economic ride we have been on in the last few years has swelled the costs associated with uprating the state pension.
“The Government’s commitment to this pledge proved paper-thin when average earnings in the three months to July 2021 – the figure usually used for the triple-lock the following year – surged past eight percent.
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Mr Selby continued: “This is a move no doubt in part designed to present Conservative Party members with clear blue water between her and the man who was central in the decision to ditch the triple-lock.”
Despite being Chancellor when the triple lock freeze was implemented, Mr Sunak defended the return of the policy before he departed the role in the Treasury.
Criticism arose about it being reintroduced while many workers are reckoning with real-terms pay cuts as a result of inflation.
However, Mr Selby once again highlighted the potentially substantial rises to the state pension under the triple lock.
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It could bring the viability of the policy into question for whoever becomes Prime Minister.
The expert continued: “Assuming the triple-lock remains in place, retirees could receive a huge boost to their incomes next year.
“September’s inflation figure will be the one to look out for, with the Bank of England predicting at peak at 13 percent later this year.
“If it were to hit 13 percent for September, the basic state pension would rise by £18.45 to £160.30 per week (£8,335.60 per year) in April 2023.
"While the new state pension would increase by £24.10 to £209.25 per week (£10,881 per year).
“This could cost the Treasury well in excess of £10billion – a huge price to pay for the keys to Number 10.
“What’s more, this isn’t a one-off cost – it would fall on the Exchequer every year.”