Air Canada has contingency plans to suspend all flying “through an orderly wind down of operations” if a threatened strike by pilots goes ahead. The flight crew are demanding more pay, aligning them more closely with their US counterparts.

After 15 months of pay negotiation, the Air Line Pilots Association (Alpa) is expected to call out Air Canada’s 5,200 pilots from Wednesday 18 September.

“The travel plans of hundreds of thousands of Canadians are hanging in the balance,” says Air Canada president and chief executive, Michael Rousseau.

The union says: “We’re operating under a decade-old contract, while inflation in Canada has surged, leaving our pay far behind the rising cost of living and the pay of our industry peers. It’s time for a contract that recognises our contributions to Air Canada.”

But the airline says: “The average Air Canada pilot’s income has increased by more than twice the rate of inflation. A pilot who was with Air Canada in 2014, at the start of the current contract, has seen an hourly rate increase of 65 per cent.”

The airline says its captains were paid a minimum of C$215,075 (£121,000) last year, with some earning up to 63 per cent more, for an average of 13.3 days’ work per month or less.

Air Canada is preparing for a complete closure of its “mainline” operations as well as the lower-cost Rouge brand.

These are the key questions and answers.

How far are the two sides apart?

Some distance. Air Canada says it has “worked hard and in good faith over 14 months to reach a new collective agreement”. The carrier says it will be “the best-paying airline in the country for pilots once a new collective agreement is reached”. But it says it must balance this against “the associated cost and the willingness of customers to pay for this increase through higher airfares, and its responsibilities to its shareholders as a publicly traded company”.

The pilots’ union, Alpa, has appealed for public support. The chair of the Canadian part of Alpa, first officer Charlene Hudy, told CBC: “Canadians need to understand that we do not want to be in this position.

“We take our jobs incredibly seriously. There’s a lot of responsibility riding on our shoulders when we get into the flight deck.”

The union insists: “We are approaching negotiations with a collaborative and constructive mindset.” But Alpa has also set up a “Strike Centre” in Toronto, the city with the busiest airport in Canada, and staged demonstrations ahead of a possible walk-out.

What happens next?

On Sunday 15 September, Alpa will be in a legal position to serve a 72-hour notice of strike. Wednesday 18 September is the earliest day when a walk-out could begin. Alternatively the airline could decide to “lock out” the pilots from that day, in order to organise an orderly shutdown of operations.

Air Canada warns that if a strike is called it will start winding down operations immediately. The carrier says: “Flights throughout the system would be progressively cancelled over three days, with a complete shutdown as early as 12.01am EDT [5.01am in the UK] on Wednesday 18 September.

Air Canada says any closure would take a long time to reverse. “For a large, network carrier operating globally, there is no such thing as a short shutdown,” the airline says.

“Running the carrier each day entails a complex choreography of crews, aircraft, ground and airport workers, suppliers and customers. If any single element is disrupted, it reverberates through the whole airline and can require days to return the system to normal.

“Given the number of aircraft involved, these would need to be parked in non-traditional locations at hub airports (such as de-ice bays).

“Once an aircraft goes into parking, maintenance teams need to put each aircraft into a state of active storage. This requires certain tasks to be performed such as adding covers to protect aircraft systems.

“Crews would be displaced all over the globe as many aircraft will need to be parked outside of crew bases. It will take several days to bring hundreds of crew members back on other airlines as there will be extremely limited seats available.”

How will this affect passengers?

Air Canada flies 110,000 passengers per day. The airline says “Rest assured that we will notify you of any impact to your flight itinerary in advance of travel.”

Travellers booked to travel from 15 to 23 September and who want to be proactive can change their booking for some time between 24 September and 30 November.

What are my rights if my flight is cancelled?

If your flight was due to start in the UK or EU, and is cancelled, Air Canada must do a lot more than just “notify you of any impact”.

Under European air passengers’ rights rules a cancelling airline must find an alternative way to get you to your destination as close to the original timings as possible.

The obvious transatlantic replacement would be on British Airways, Air Transat or WestJet between the UK and Canada, if seats are available.

Air Canada is also likely to rebook passengers with its Star Alliance partner, United. This would involve flying by the US – which would require you to go through the onerous business of getting an Esta permit and clearing the US frontier for the hour or two you will be spending there between flights.

The Civil Aviation Authority has made it clear that if you not offered a same-day replacement you can take it into your own hands and buy another ticket, subsequently this back from the cancelling carrier.

But with many carriers flying full, this could involve a difficult journey.

While passengers are waiting to be flown where they need to be, they can expect to be provided with hotel accommodation and meals if necessary.

Regional flights on Air Canada Express are not affected. But if you cannot, for example, reach Vancouver, the fact that the daily Air Canada Express link to Prince Rupert is going ahead is irrelevant.

If your journey is beginning in Canada, the Air Passenger Protection Regulations (APPR) apply. For cancellations that are the airline’s responsibility, travellers would be entitled to compensation as well as hotels and meals as necessary.

But unlike European air passengers’ rights rules, the Canadian regulations excuse airlines a duty of care if the cause of disruption is outside its control. According to the APPR, “a labour disruption within the carrier” is regarded as beyond an airline’s control. So there is no entitlement to care.

Could travel insurance help?

In some circumstances, notably for additional expenses incurred as a result of the strike that cannot be covered by anyone else, you can claim on travel insurance. But you would be expected to approach the airline first before claiming for out-of-pocket costs. For flights from the UK, the airline is responsible for extra costs; from Canada, it is not.

Will I get compensation?

It is questionable; under European air passengers’ rights rules, there is no consensus that industrial action entitles travellers whose flights are cancelled to claim cash compensation. Canada’s APPR holds that strikes are outside Air Canada’s control and no compensation is payable.

Will the strike actually happen?

In aviation, I have seen more pilots’ strikes called off at the last minute than have actually gone ahead. From the point of view of a pilots’ union, merely threatening to walk out is a valuable bargaining position. It means prospective passengers will immediately start booking with other carriers, so they can get some certainty about travel. That damages the earnings of the airline. So there is a strong incentive to settle well before strike takes place.

Having said that, the fact that Air Canada is winding down operations shows it is prepared to countenance a stoppage.

Air Canada boss Michael Rousseau has called on Ottawa to intervene, saying: “While we remain committed to reaching a negotiated settlement with Alpa, the federal government should be prepared to intervene if talks fail before any travel disruption starts.”

And when the dispute is settled?

Air Canada warns that it will take days to get back to normal, saying: “In the event of a short shutdown, many crews would still be in transit home while the airline is trying to start-up. Crews need crew rest once back home, adding an additional 24 hours of unavailability.

“Weather systems occurring at our hubs could further complicate a restart, particularly with large numbers of aircraft parked in one place during a shutdown.”

For transatlantic and other international flights, the delay will be worse, Air Canada says: “Flights will have to operate to an international destination, wait for 24-28 hours, then operate back, which results in high cancellation numbers for international flights.

“Once an international flight lands at a foreign destination, a new, rested crew already on site operates the flight home. Positioning crew in these destinations ahead of time will add three-to-five days to the ramp-up process.”

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