Croatia, Iceland and Madeira are among the destinations that could be kicked off the UK’s green list in the upcoming government review of international travel.

Seven countries and territories have been identified as potential candidates to be demoted to amber by Covid and data expert Tim White, who published his predictions ahead of the next travel announcement, expected to be revealed this week.

Based on global Covid rates and available data, White forecast that Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada, Dominica, Croatia, Iceland, Israel and Madeira are all at risk.

Should these destinations be shunted from green to amber, travellers fully vaccinated in the UK, US or EU would not be affected by the move, and could still avoid quarantine on return to the UK.

However, arrivals who aren’t double jabbed – or single-jabbed, in the case of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in America – would face 10 days of self-isolation, as well as an extra PCR test.

“I predict Antigua & Barbuda, Grenada and Dominica will be moved from green watchlist to amber tomorrow,” White tweeted. “Anguilla and Turks and Caicos are also at risk but with such small populations may survive.”

He added that, although Norway, Slovenia and Bulgaria were all candidates for moving from green to amber, “they probably won't” as they’re not on the green watchlist, and a demotion would “make a mockery of having a watchlist”.

Although Croatia - currently on the green watchlist - has a lower infection rate than the above countries, its figures are on the rise and “with all the Balkans suffering”, White recommends a downgrade.

“Madeira is likely to be downgraded to amber, bringing it in line with mainland Portugal after a significant rise in Covid cases on the Atlantic island,” he said.

“Israel isn't in Europe but often lumped in with it, and Jerusalem also has to be removed from green list this time.”

The next update to the UK’s travel lists is expected this week, on either 25 or 26 August.

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