The dispute between the train drivers’ union, Aslef, and 14 train operators in England is into its third year.

With no settlement in sight to the long and bitter row over pay and working arrangements, the union has announced its first strikes for 2024.

Train drivers belonging to Aslef will stop work region-by-region over the course of a week between Tuesday 30 January and Monday 5 February. Thousands of trains are likely to be cancelled on each day.

The effect will be exacerbated by a nine-day ban on overtime running from 29 January to 6 February, and an additional five-day strike on LNER only from 5 to 9 February.

These are the key questions and answers.

Which rail firms are affected?

Aslef is in dispute with the train operators that are contracted by the government to provide rail services. They are:

Intercity operators:

London commuter operators:

Operators focusing on the Midlands and north of England:

ScotRail, Transport for Wales, Transport for London (including the Elizabeth Line), Merseyrail and “open-access” operators such as Grand Central, Hull Trains and Lumo are not involved. But their services are likely to be extremely crowded on stretches where they duplicate strike-hit companies.

What is the strike schedule?

Monday 29 January: overtime ban begins.

Tuesday 30 January: South Western Railway, Southeastern and GTR (Southern, Gatwick Express, Great Northern and Thameslink).

Wednesday 31 January: Northern and TransPennine Express.

Thursday 1 February: no strike but overtime ban continues.

Friday 2 February: Greater Anglia, C2C and LNER (the last of which has an additional strike during the following week).

Saturday 3 February: West Midlands Trains, Avanti West Coast and East Midlands Railway.

Sunday 4 February: no strike but overtime ban continues.

Monday 5 February: Great Western, CrossCountry and Chiltern. LNER strike begins, running all week to 9 February.

Tuesday 6 February: no strike but overtime ban continues for a final day.

Wednesday 7-Friday 9 February: LNER strike continues with an additional overtime ban by train drivers.

Saturday 10 February: final day for LNER overtime ban.

What are the likely effects of the strikes?

Based on the experience of the last rolling strikes, these are the predicted effects – assuming no “minimum service level” action is taken by the transport secretary, Mark Harper.

They are based on The Independent’s observation of previous strikes, and should be confirmed with individual rail firms.

Great Northern (30 January): No trains.

Thameslink (30 January): No trains.

Southeastern (30 January): No trains.

Southern (30 January): No trains except a nonstop shuttle service between London Victoria and Gatwick airport, from 6am to 11.30pm.

Gatwick Express (30 January): No trains but the Southern airport shuttle will cover the ground.

South Western Railway (30 January): A core service of up to four trains per hour between London Waterloo with Woking, with one train each hour extended to both Guildford and Basingstoke. A shuttle will run from Basingstoke to Salisbury. Trains will also run between Waterloo and Feltham via Richmond and Twickenham. No trains on the Isle of Wight.

Northern (31 January): No trains.

TransPennine Express (31 January): No trains.

C2C (2 February): No trains

Greater Anglia (2 February): Limited service linking London Liverpool Street with Norwich, Ipswich and Colchester; Southend Victoria; Cambridge; and Stansted airport.

LNER (2 February and 5-9 February): Regular trains on core routes linking London King’s Cross with Leeds, York, Newcastle and Edinburgh.

Avanti West Coast (3 February): No trains. The operator is likely to emphasis “services on the days either side of the strike will also be affected”.

East Midlands Railway (3 February): No trains. Last time the train firm warned: “Do Not Travel. No Rail Replacement Bus services will be provided.”

West Midlands Railway (3 February): No trains.

Chiltern (5 February): No trains.

CrossCountry (5 February): No trains.

Great Western Railway (5 February): A core service will run between London Paddington and Oxford, Bath and Bristol, with a link from Bristol to Cardiff. A limited service on branch lines in Devon and Cornwall. The Night Riviera sleeper service from London to Penzance will not run for a number of nights. The Heathrow Express is also likely to be affected, with a reduced service between 7am and 7pm only.

In addition to the disruption on strike days, trains on adjacent days may be affected. Services on these days are also likely to be extremely busy due to passengers moving their journeys to avoid industrial action.

What about the new minimum service levels law?

Legislation now allows the transport secretary to stipulate minimum service levels (MSLs) on strike days amounting to 40 per cent of the normal service.

LNER is the operator that is rumoured to be most likely to serve a “work notice” on Aslef, obligating some union members to report for duty. A spokesperson said: “The MSL legislation is a new tool that has become available to us and we are exploring its use.

“Our priority focus remains on minimising disruption to customers during Aslef’s strikes, which sadly will continue to cause disruption and delays.”

The Transport Select Committee has warned of potential unintended consequences of the legislation. The Conservative chair, Iain Stewart, said: “There is a risk of MSLs worsening worker-employer relations and that, as a result, MSLs could end up making services less reliable.”

Is there a ‘worst day’?

Yes. In terms of sheer number of passengers hit, Monday 29 January will be the most disruptive. It is aimed at commuters in southeast England, the majority of whom use the affected train operators.

Intercity travellers will be worst affected on Friday 2 and Saturday 3 February, when the main operators on the East Coast and West Coast main lines, as well as the Midland mainline, will be hit.

Sunday 4 February is also likely to be severely disrupted because of the ban on rest-day working as well as planned engineering work between Birmingham and Wolverhampton on the West Coast main line and between London King’s Cross and Stevenage on the East Coast main line.

What will be the impact of the overtime ban?

The minimum service level rules do not apply to union bans on non-contractual rest-day working.

The overtime ban alone will cause thousands of cancellations. Aslef says no train operator “employs enough drivers to provide the service they promise passengers and businesses they will deliver without asking drivers to work their days off”.

The general warning to passengers during the last Aslef overtime ban from 1 to 9 December 2023: “Trains are subject to short notice alterations and cancellations.”

Several rail firms announced pre-emptive cancellations for the previous overtime ban, as follows:

C2C: “Severely reduced service” at weekends, with many trains also cut on weekdays.

Chiltern: Significantly reduced service on most routes, with no trains at all on some branch lines. “Services on all routes will finish earlier than usual.”

Gatwick Express: No trains during the overtime ban. Southern trains will link London Victoria and Gatwick airport throughout the industrial action.

London Northwestern Railway/West Midlands Railway: Branch lines between Bletchley and Bedford, Watford Junction and St Albans Abbey, and Leamington Spa and Nuneaton, will be closed on most or all days.

Southern: “An amended timetable with fewer services will run. Services may start later and finish earlier than usual.”

Thameslink warned: “A reduced frequency amended timetable will be in operation.”

On the first day, many early trains were cancelled. They include South Western Railway from London Waterloo to Southampton; Great Western Railway from London Paddington to Weston-super-Mare via Bristol and Carmarthen via Cardiff and Swansea; and TransPennine Express links from Manchester and Newcastle to Edinburgh, as well as a number of Manchester-Leeds-Hull services.

Sunday is still not part of the working week at a number of train operators, so 4 February will be particularly disrupted by the ban on rest-day working.

Some trains may restrict either boarding or leaving trains at certain stations to avoid overcrowding.

What if I need to reach an airport?

Again, these are predictions based on what happened last time.

London Heathrow remained accessible at all times on the Elizabeth Line and the Tube.

Passengers using London Gatwick will be significantly affected on the first day of strikes, Tuesday 30 January, when all Gatwick and Thameslink trains are likely to cease. But passengers between London, Gatwick and Brighton will get a fair number of trains

London Stansted had an hourly skeleton service from the capital on Tuesday 5 December, with “service alterations” on all the other days of the overtime ban.

Luton airport will remain accessible by rail, at least from London, on all days: on the Thameslink strike day, 30 January. the East Midlands Railway link will be running; conversely on 3 February, when no East Midlands Railway services are likely to run, Thameslink will be operating.

Birmingham airport is likely to be inaccessible by rail, except for Transport for Wales from Birmingham New Street, on Saturday 3 February.

Manchester airport is likely to be inaccessible by rail, except for an hourly link on Transport for Wales to and from central Manchester, Chester and North Wales, on Wednesday 31 January.

Will Eurostar be affected?

No, trains will continue to run as normal between London St Pancras International and Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam. But connecting journeys will be difficult on strike days – particularly Tuesday 30 January, when Thameslink and Southeastern are out, and on Saturday 3 February when no East Midlands Railway services are likely to run.

What does Aslef say?

In the latest Aslef Journal, general secretary Mick Whelan told members: “Train drivers are fed up and frustrated that their employers failed to negotiate in good faith, making a proposal through the Rail Delivery Group which they knew would be turned down.

“Aslef members – key workers who kept our country moving through the pandemic – are simply asking for a fair and decent deal.

“We haven’t had a meeting with Mark Harper, the transport secretary, since December 2022. We haven’t had a meeting with Huw Merriman, the rail minister, since January. And we haven’t heard from the employers since April.

“We have always said that we are prepared to come to the table but the government and TOCs need to understand that this dispute won’t be resolved by trying to bully our members into accepting worse terms and conditions of employment.”

On the special five-day LNER strike, Mr Whelan said: “We have given LNER management - and their government counterparts who hold the purse strings - every opportunity to come to the table and they have so far made no realistic offer to our members.” He called upon the rail firms “to come to the table and work with us to resolve this dispute so we can all move forward and get our railway back on track”.

What do the rail firms say?

A spokesperson for Rail Delivery Group said: “Nobody wins when strikes impact lives and livelihoods, and they’re particularly difficult to justify at a time when taxpayers are continuing to contribute an extra £54m a week to keep services running post-Covid.

“Despite the railway’s huge financial challenge, drivers have been made an offer which would take base salaries to nearly £65,000 for a four-day week without overtime – that is well above the national average and significantly more than many of our passengers that have no option to work from home are paid.

“Instead of staging more damaging industrial action, we call on the Aslef leadership to work with us to resolve this dispute and deliver a fair deal which both rewards our people, and makes the changes needed to make services more reliable.”

What does the government say?

A Department for Transport spokesperson said: “It’s very disappointing to see Aslef continuing to target those who travel to work, school or important medical appointments by train.

“Aslf is now the only rail union that is continuing to strike while refusing to put a fair and reasonable offer to its members. The offer that remains on the table and would bring the average train driver’s salary up to £65,000.

“The Aslef leadership should do the right thing and let their members decide their own future, instead of deciding it for them.”

What does the Labour Party say it would do if elected?

The shadow rail minister, Stephen Morgan MP, said: “Labour will bring our railways back into public ownership, as contracts expire, and ensure services work in the interests of the passenger.”

LNER, which is facing addition industrial action, is already in public ownership.

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