In turn, outgoing officials at two agencies, Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement, briefed Biden’s transition officials on the expected rise, said Homan, former acting ICE director and Trump confidant.

“Senior leadership in DHS under Trump told his transition team, told them numerous times, if you end these policies you’re going to see an unprecedented surge,” he said.

Homan said he had urged Republicans, who lost the White House and Senate in November, to speak more about immigration during the campaign. But Trump talked about the issue far less in 2020 than in 2016 in part because of the all-consuming pandemic but also because some of his aides were reluctant to turn off Hispanic voters in critical states.

Biden’s team blames Trump for pushing through last-minute policy changes, including closing shelters for children, that worsened the situation and for failing to share information as he blocked the transition in unprecedented ways.

“Being prepared and having a plan is not the same as having the right tools available especially when the previous administration created such a mess,” said Cecilia Muñoz, a top immigration adviser for Barack Obama who worked on the Biden transition team.

During the transition, the incoming Biden administration outlined specific plans to reverse Trump policies, including halting the construction of the border wall and stopping deportations for 100 days, that Republicans thought would create more problems at the border.

But Biden has yet to act on many of Trump’s immigration policies, from failing to increase the cap on refugees to rescinding a ban on most migrants at the southern border. He is allowing unaccompanied children and some families to remain in the U.S. for humanitarian reasons, though his administration was not ready for the influx.

In the Senate, Republicans say the rise in migrants at the border is expected to be an issue in competitive races across the country from Colorado and Arizona to New Hampshire and Georgia. In the House, they say, it would likely be used more often in border districts in Texas and Arizona.

“It’s certainly central to our messaging,” said a Republican operative involved with numerous Senate races. “Democrats are out of touch with the American people on immigration. They’re afraid of doing something on the border that would make liberal activist groups angry, regardless of whether it’s the right thing to do. We plan to highlight this every step of the way because it’s clearly bad policy. “

They cite poll after poll showing Biden’s low job approval rating on the border, especially with independents. House Republicans will soon poll the issue in battleground districts while Senate Republicans point to their poll that show 62 percent of independents disapprove of policies that include cutting border funding and halting deportations.

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