The next tri-weekly review of the UK’s traffic light system for travel is fast approaching.

An update is expected on or around 25 August, with the potential for more countries to be added to the government’s green list of “safe” holiday destinations.

There are 36 countries and territories rated green at present. But what are the top contenders for upgrading from amber this time around? Here’s what we know so far.

Which countries are on the green list right now?

There are 36 territories on the green list, many of which do not currently let in British travellers or are impossible to reach directly, thereby necessitating travel through an amber country.

On 8 August, seven destinations - Austria, Germany, Slovenia, Slovakia, Latvia, Romania and Norway - were added to the green list, while none were removed.

While France remains on the UK’s amber list, it was also announced on 8 August that fully-vaccinated travellers returning to the UK from France no longer have to quarantine.

Green list in full

However, 16 of these destinations are on the green list, meaning they are at risk of moving from green to amber:

Green watchlist destinations

When will the green list be updated?

The lists are being updated “every three weeks”. That timeframe indicates that the next list review will be on or around Wednesday 25 August, with changes coming into effect within the week after that date.

Amends to the lists will be informed by public health advice, including the Joint Biosecurity Centre’s assessment of the latest data.

“These regular review points will allow the government to balance helping the public to understand Covid requirements when travelling to England while allowing us to constantly evaluate the risk for different countries,” according to the Department for Transport (DfT).

Which countries might be added to the green list?

As always, this comes with the caveat that anything can happen on traffic-light day – no forecaster has so far been anywhere near completely accurate when making predictions on this score.

But some analysts and experts have thrown out suggestions based on current infection rates.

Poland, Bhutan, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Saudi Arabia have all been touted as destinations with low enough Covid figures to warrant a move to the green list.

Research by the PC Agency reported on 22 August showed that declining cases in these countries meant they were likely to be considered for an upgrade from amber to green.

The figures are based on Covid infection rates, the proportion of tests coming back positive and the level of vaccination.

After the last green list review, CEO of the PC Agency, Paul Charles, named several countries which could or should have been added based on the same criteria.

"When you take the criteria of the seven countries added to the [green] list today, then actually they equally apply to the countries that haven’t been added – like Poland, for example, or the Czech Republic or even Canada,” Charles pointed out.

However, though some countries may qualify for a move in terms of low case numbers, government sources have warned that many won’t make the grade.

On 19 August, data analyst and journalist Tim White tweeted a breakdown of the current Covid data from nations around the world, predicting that Spain and Greece will not join the UK’s green list the week of 23 August.

White suggested the two holiday favourites will stay amber and that based on current figures, they certainly “shouldn’t be going red”.

CEO of the PC Agency, Paul Charles, agreed on Spain: “I’ve had many followers asking about Spain - do not worry. It won’t be going red at the next review,” he tweeted.

“Rates on every level are falling quite sharply, and the vaccination rollout is going strongly, with over 65 per cent of the population fully-jabbed.”

Which countries might be removed from the green list?

In terms of countries being downgraded from green to amber, Tim White identified the Caribbean islands of Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica and Grenada as possible candidates for removal from the green list.

The PC Agency’s research predicts that eight countries and territories in total may move off the green list and onto amber: Israel, Croatia, Madeira and Lithuania, and the Caribbean islands of Anguilla, Antigua, Montserrat and Turks and Caicos.

What about holidaymakers who are fully vaccinated?

The green list restrictions will not be affected by a person’s vaccination status. However, British travellers entering the UK from amber list countries no longer have to quarantine and can follow green list rules instead, as long as they have received their second vaccine dose in the UK, US or EU at least 14 days prior, or are an an accompanying minor (under 18 years old).

What are the restrictions for travellers returning from green countries?

Green list countries currently have the lightest restrictions for inbound travellers to the UK, with no quarantine imposed and just one PCR test required within two days of arrival.

All travellers must also show proof of a negative Covid test – PCR, rapid antigen or lateral flow – before departure to the UK.

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